So lets start with what we know and then move into what we think:

We know that we have one more year (2008-09) under the current alignment.

We know that 386 schools have asked to be classified, and that (barring a geographic hardship case) that means that 96 schools will be assigned to 1A, 2A, 3A and 4A. Schools cannot play up anymore, so the numbers that have been recently released should stand (unless there are some errors, and there are usually a few). So if your school is right on that bubble, don't finalize your plans for classification just yet. This also means, since we have split playoffs in football, that exacty 2/3 of all schools will make the postseason.

The schools that are changing classes will disrupt some leagues, require big changes in others, and possibly even do away with a few leagues. The 3A conferences in the Triad appear to be the hardest hit. The 6-team Piedmont Triad 3A will lose all 6 schools!

Among the traditional football powers that appear to be moving...

Crest will return again to the 3A ranks, where the Chargers are no strangers. They will be joined by big football names like Douglas Byrd and EE Smith in Fayetteville. The movement of three Fayetteville schools (Westover is the third) to 3A will require real tweaks or changes to the carefully-crafted two conference arrangement from 2005. So much for long-term fixes in the high-growth world of change we live in!

Mooresville and TC Roberson will try their hand for the first time at the 4A ranks, and it will be interesting to see how each tries to align themselves (and whether the NCHSAA Realignment Committee will concur).

Coming back to 4A will be Carver, Dudley, Parkland and Glenn, as well as Ragsdale (for the first time). This will have significant impact in not just football, but basketball and other sports as well. Eastern Randolph will move down to 2A, as will Bertie - the last truly eastern NC school to win a 3A state football title in 1995.

Generally speaking, from a football standpoint, I think that 4A will be strengthened by the changes in this alignment, and 3A weakened. But then, the reverse was true when many of these schools dropped down to 3A almost a decade ago, so turnabout is fair play, perhaps.

More to come later...

It is going to be intersting to see how the NCHSAA handles it this time around. I see more split conferences but who knows?

Yeah, it's a real Catch-22, I think.

On the one hand, the Association membership wants to get away from the split leagues, because they are complicated and cumbersome when it gets to playoff time (not to mention some of the equity issues when there is a small group of schools competing for berths).

On the other hand, having split leagues is clearly the easiest way to address travel time and the economics associated with that.

Re the split leagues again, you know a lot of the larger counties are going to want one to address the differnet classes in their own area and maximize economies. But then, what if we had half of our leagues as split leagues.

About 15 years ago, the State Department of Public Instruction did a study that found that the optimal size for high school - balancing the opportunity to offer the most courses while still keeping a good learning envrironment (and the teacher-student ratio), was 800-1200 students.

I speculated that if that ever became the norm, realignment would be very easy. Clearly we aren't there, not will we ever be, but I do see a little more of a move to the middle. Our bell curve of high school enrollment has a higher middle than it used to.